Analysis of agriculture land loss in the periphery of Lugo using logistic regressions and cellular automata models
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Abstract
cities and a loss of links with the rural areas that surround them. These dynamics originated a decay of local agriculture and a loss of agriculture land in favour of urban land uses. Considering the challenges that climate change, oil scarcity and a growing urban population impose, a series of uncertainties are generated around food safety and sovereignty which should be tackled by fostering peri-urban agriculture. In the present work, agriculture land uses in the city of Lugo will be studied. For this, land use changes were analysed crossing land use maps of several years and using logistic regressions. Finally an urbanization probability map was generated for 2021, using a cellular automata model. This map was crossed with an agriculture suitability map to identify areas with high suitability which risk to be urbanized. The used methodology, allowed identifying drivers of agriculture land loss and the areas where to implement planning policies aimed at preserving best agriculture land in the periphery of Lugo.
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