Los fenómenos pluviométricos extremos en el escenario de cambio climático antropogénico en Galicia. Gestión de la incertidumbre

Abstract

Risks linked to climate change derived from extreme events, such as heat waves or extreme precipitation events, are already considered in the IPCC reports as moderate (high confidence level) and high, in case of additional heating of 1° C. The abundance and regularity of the precipitations characterize the Galician climate reality, although in the range of natural variability of this meteor, exceptional episodes are recorded, either by their low frequency of appearance or by the volume of precipitated water. The regional projections of the predictive models point to a possible increase of extreme precipitation phenomena and a greater irregularity of the contributions. Although, given the very nature of this meteor, these projections still move in a low degree of confidence. In this paper, in addition to assessing the situation of these possible scenarios of change and the consequences derived from it, we also reflect on the urgent need to modify environmental policies at both the Galician and global levels.