O coronavirus: cisne negro e perturbación na dotación de capital
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Analízase un shock externo provocado por un efecto extraordinario e imprevisible, un "cisne negro", como a COVID-19. Tal shock leva a un cambio de dotación de capital nos mercados financeiros, e ten efectos sobre a desigualdade económica, o desenvolvemento financeiro e a renda económica. Propóñense modelos teóricos nos que o sector público busca alternativas ao confinamento, permitindo a autorregulación da economía, gravando o capital ou buscando políticas conxuntas con outros Estados. No primeiro modelo, a economía autorregúlase coa axuda do sector financeiro. Porén, xérase desigualdade
económica, polo que nos seguintes modelos o sector público intenta intervir. En primeiro lugar, o sector público minimiza a desigualdade gravando o capital, o que permite unha redistribución da riqueza e da renda, cun tipo impositivo que só depende dos impactos diferenciais do cisne negro nos distintos mercados. Por último, proponse unha coordinación de políticas entre os distintos países afectados para evitar os cisnes negros e outras externalidades negativas. Isto é factible en función do tipo impositivo, das preferencias dos fogares e dos custos de administración.
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