A interrrelación entre os mercados financeiro e inmobiliario: implicacións para a estabilidade da eurozona

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José Pablo Abeal Vázquez
Universidade da Coruña
Espanha
José Manuel Sánchez Santos
Universidade da Coruña
Espanha
v. 21 (2012): Crisis in the Eurozone, Articles
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15304/rge.21.Extra.430
Recibido: 11-10-2012 Aceito: 11-10-2012
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Resumo

A recente situación de inestabilidade financeira e a súa transmisión á economía produtiva, ademais de revelar o carácter bidireccional da relación entre variables financeiras e reais, deixa importantes interrogantes sobre a capacidade que ten o Banco Central Europeo (BCE) para instrumentar unha política monetaria eficaz nunha área tan heteroxénea como a eu-rozona. Esta constatación resulta de especial relevancia cando se trata de explicar a interrelación entre os tipos de xuro de referencia da política monetaria, o comportamento do crédito, a xeración de burbullas de prezos no mercado inmobiliario e a evolución da actividade económica real. Nesta liña, o obxectivo principal deste artigo é afondar na natureza da interrelación entre os mercados financeiros e inmobiliarios, así como sobre os factores que condicionan as posibilidades do BCE para contribuír á estabilidade da eurozona mediante a instrumentación da política monetaria. Para iso estímase un modelo VAR que permite obter evidencia acerca da interrelación entre o prezo da vivenda, o tipo de xuro, o crédito, a inflación e o PIB para unha mos-tra de cinco países que forman parte da eurozona (España, Irlanda, Austria, Francia e Portugal).

Palavras-chave:

Mercado inmobiliario, Inestabilidade financeira, Unión monetaria, Política monetaria, Banco Central Europeo
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