Tasa de desempleo y formación de hogares en Portugal
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Este artículo toma el caso de Portugal durante el período 2003-2017 para investigar el efecto de un shock negativo en la tasa de desempleo sobre la formación de nuevos hogares y el tiempo durante el que esta se ve afectada por el empeoramiento de las condiciones económicas generales. Para ello, se ha estimado un Modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos en el que se incorpo-ran diversas variables endógenas y exógenas que, según la literatura, inciden sobre la formación de hogares. Los resultados demuestran que la tasa de desempleo es la variable que en mayor medida explica la creación de nuevos hogares, reforzando la relación entre la situación económica y otras variables de naturaleza social, como la emancipación personal. Además, el impacto de un shock permanente sobre la tasa de desempleo se prolonga durante los dos años siguientes sobre la formación de nuevos hogares, momento en el que esta vuelve a sus niveles iniciales.
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