Explaining COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities using spatial autocorrelation models

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Published: 22-05-2021

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Paulo Mourao
Universidade do Minho-Escola de Economia e Gestão, Departamento de Economía, Campus de Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Portugal
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6046-645X
Ricardo Bento
Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Centro de Estudos Transdisciplinares para o Desenvolvimento (CETRAD), Departamento de Engenharias, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
Portugal
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4469-385X
Vol 30 No 1 (2021): Special Issue. COVID-19 and its economic effects: Supply chain disruptions and behavioural changes, Articles, pages 1-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15304/rge.30.1.6984
Submitted: 30-06-2020 Accepted: 10-04-2021 Published: 22-05-2021
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Abstract

This paper investigates the pattern of COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities from March 23rd to April 5th (the exponential phase). We have recurred to spatial autocorrelation models to discuss how the conglomeration of highly infectious spaces has also contributed to infecting neighbouring municipalities. We have used several indicators for the contagion of COVID-19 from the number of infectious individuals to rates of infectious. As explicative variables, additionally to spatial proximity, we also considered population density, the share of the elderly population as well as the length of municipal perimeter/border. Our results show that highly dense municipalities tended to contaminate close areas. Lengthier perimeters also showed a positive effect on the contagious indicators for a given municipality.

Keywords:

Covid-19, Portugal, Spatial contagion, Spatial autocorrelation
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