MACROECONOMETRIC STABILIZATION AND IMF POLICIES: A SURVEILLANCE OF INFLATION
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Abstract
between aggregate money supply and changes in the general price level (inflation) for a
selected group of countries with historically stable prices and episodes of very high inflation.
Recent paradigmatic shifts from exchange-rate-based stabilization policies to
conditionalities involving price stability have greatly influenced the empirical work of this
paper. Empirical results indicate that the money supply and inflation are cointegrated in
some countries with high spells of inflation, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, but that
the variables may not be cointegrated with each other for countries with prices that are
generally and historically stable, such as the UK and the US. The paper highlights the need for
good quality governance, employment, and productivity in surveillance measures that are
designed to obtain external balance.
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