Electoral consolidation of territorial and identity imbalance in Spain (2008-2019)
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Abstract
Changes in the Spanish party’s systems as well as parties’ deepening on questions related to the form on the Spanish state after 2008 Great Recession, make it interesting to analyse citizens’ polarization on the centre-periphery axis and how the electoral space get reorganized in this respect. This article aims at analysing the distribution of national identities and preferences over the territorial organization of the state among voters of Spanish parties in the electoral context after 2008. For this purpose, we pool CIS post-electoral studies from 2008 to 2019 and explore them through graphics and multinomial logit regressions. Our findings confirm that the erosion already noted by Jiménez and Navarro (2015) for 2011’s elections were not just conjunctural. In fact, there was a trend that consolidated by 2015 and stabilizes until 2019. More specifically, the erosion in support for the current Estado de las Autonomías system consolidates at the same time that support for centralist options increases in general. This weakening is not contemporary with a similar general deterioration of compatible identities among citizenry, despite the increase in exclusive national identities. Regarding the new party’s system, voters get polarized in relation to their preferences over the territorial organization of the state, not their national identities.
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